SPDR S&P 500 ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Thursday trading session

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price fell by -0.558% on the last day (Thursday, 5th Mar 2026) from $685.13 to $681.31. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.47% from a day low at $675.61 to a day high of $685.53. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.46% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 31 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 99 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $67.34 billion.

The ETF is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPDR S&P 500 ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $676.75 and $699.89 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, March 03, 2026, and so far it has risen 0.144%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $685.97 and $687.99. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPDR S&P 500 finds support from accumulated volume at $681.27 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $9.92 between high and low, or 1.47%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.36%.

SPDR S&P 500 holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.