SPDR S&P 500 ETF downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Wednesday trading session

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price gained 0.557% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 25th Mar 2026), rising from $653.18 to $656.82. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.02% from a day low at $654.24 to a day high of $660.89. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -2.88% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -9 million shares and in total, 86 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $56.64 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -4.01% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $621.18 and $656.20 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, March 20, 2026, and so far it has risen 1.27%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $658.00 and $677.65. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

SPDR S&P 500 finds support from accumulated volume at $655.38 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $6.65 between high and low, or 1.02%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.30%.

SPDR S&P 500 holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Sell candidate.