SPY ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Wednesday trading session.

StockInvest.us, 3 weeks ago


The SPY ETF price fell by -1.63% on the last day (Wednesday, 31st Jan 2024) from $490.89 to $482.91. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.29% from a day low at $482.86 to a day high of $489.08. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.25% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 68 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 124 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $59.87 billion.

The ETF lies in the middle of a narrow and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 12.07% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $533.14 and $552.52 at the end of this 3-month period.


The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $487.28. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $475.96. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, January 29, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.70%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $472.00 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $6.22 between high and low, or 1.29%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.720%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.