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SPY ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate

StockInvest.us, 2 months ago

StockInvest.us

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.93% on the last day (Friday, 22nd Jul 2022) from $398.79 to $395.09. During the day the ETF fluctuated 1.89% from a day low at $392.75 to a day high of $400.18. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days, but is still up by 1.65% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 6 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 71 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $27.97 billion.

The ETF lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $398.19 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -8.41% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $322.47 and $364.70 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

SPY

The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $389.42 and $387.34. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, July 21, 2022, and so far it has fallen -0.93%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $392.75 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $7.43 between high and low, or 1.89%. For the last week the ETF has had a daily average volatility of 1.85%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.