SPY ETF downgraded to Hold/AccumulateStockInvest.us, 2 weeks ago
The SPY ETF price gained 0.124% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th Nov 2023), rising from $450.23 to $450.79. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.470% from a day low at $449.29 to a day high of $451.40. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.7% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 19 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 82 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $36.87 billion.
Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.80% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $396.21 and $438.16 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $444.84 and $430.75. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, October 27, 2023, and so far it has risen 9.77%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $429.54 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.11 between high and low, or 0.470%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.628%.
The SPY ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.