SPY ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate

The SPY ETF price gained 0.78% on the last trading day (Monday, 19th Sep 2022), rising from $385.56 to $388.55. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.67% from a day low at $382.18 to a day high of $388.55. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -0.94% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -29 million shares and in total, 73 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $28.38 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $385.98 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 6.33% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $410.41 and $467.22 at the end of this 3-month period.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, September 16, 2022, and so far it has risen 0.78%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $395.64 and $408.42. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $385.56 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $6.37 between high and low, or 1.67%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.75%.

The SPY ETF holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe SPY will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.