SPY ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.728% on the last day (Thursday, 19th Jan 2023) from $391.49 to $388.64. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.99% from a day low at $387.26 to a day high of $391.08. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.27% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -10 million shares and in total, 87 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $33.80 billion.

The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $384.85 and $417.96 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $394.19 and $390.76. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, January 13, 2023, and so far it has fallen -2.47%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $382.02 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $3.82 between high and low, or 0.99%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.34%.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.