SPY ETF price ended at $594.33 on Tuesday, after losing 0.481%

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.481% on the last day (Tuesday, 25th Feb 2025) from $597.20 to $594.33. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.41% from a day low at $589.56 to a day high of $597.89. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.73% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 13 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 56 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $33.55 billion.

The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $586.90 and $617.46 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $605.11 and $600.03. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, and so far it has fallen -3.01%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $590.83 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $8.33 between high and low, or 1.41%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.14%.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.