SPY ETF price ended on $412.55 on Thursday after losing 1.2%

The SPY ETF price fell by -1.20% on the last day (Thursday, 26th Oct 2023) from $417.55 to $412.55. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.38% from a day low at $411.63 to a day high of $417.33. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -4.88% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 27 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 115 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $47.30 billion.

The ETF has broken the narrow and falling short-term trend down. Firstly a stronger fallrate is indicated, but false breaks and "sell-off" may occur. However, a further fall is realistic and any reactions back to the breaking point ($413.75) are considered to be a "second chance" to get out. According to the fan-theory $393.79 will represent the new bottom line of the next trend, but it is far too early to say this for certain.

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $421.72 and $432.21. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, October 11, 2023, and so far it has fallen -5.45%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.69 between high and low, or 1.38%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.28%.

SPY holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.

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