Stronger technical forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF price after Monday trading

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price fell by -0.699% on the last day (Monday, 7th Jul 2025) from $625.05 to $620.68. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.07% from a day low at $617.87 to a day high of $624.48. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.44% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 28 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 74 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $45.87 billion.

The ETF lies in the upper part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $626.66 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 18.26% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $701.60 and $741.11 at the end of this 3-month period.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $618.37 and $599.78. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, July 03, 2025, and so far it has fallen -0.699%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $548.62 and $524.58.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPDR S&P 500 finds support just below today's level at $548.62. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $524.58 and $496.48.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $6.61 between high and low, or 1.07%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.747%.

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for SPDR S&P 500 ETF to perform well in the short-term.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.