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Stronger technical forecast for SPY ETF price after Friday trading.

StockInvest.us, 1 month ago


The SPY ETF price gained 1.69% on the last trading day (Friday, 12th Aug 2022), rising from $419.99 to $427.10. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.47% from a day low at $421.03 to a day high of $427.21. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days, but is still up by 3.67% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 741 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 62 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $26.31 billion.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 2.33% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $380.49 and $437.05 at the end of this 3-month period.


Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $417.01 and $396.25. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 17, 2022, and so far it has risen 16.74%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $389.80 and $375.00.There is natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPY finds support just below today's level at $389.80. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $375.00 and $366.65.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $6.18 between high and low, or 1.47%. For the last week, the ETF has had a daily average volatility of 1.14%.

The SPY ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

SPY holds several positive signals and is within a weak rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Strong Buy candidate.

Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.