Stronger technical forecast for SPY ETF price after Monday trading

The SPY ETF price gained 0.671% on the last trading day (Monday, 31st Mar 2025), rising from $555.66 to $559.39. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.29% from a day low at $546.87 to a day high of $559.39. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.35% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 12 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 75 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $41.72 billion.

The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -6.12% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $510.25 and $557.96 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $566.31 and $581.13. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, March 13, 2025, and so far it has risen 1.45%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $558.87 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $12.52 between high and low, or 2.29%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.49%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.