Stronger technical forecast for SPY ETF price after Tuesday trading

The SPY ETF price fell by -1.05% on the last day (Tuesday, 18th Mar 2025) from $567.05 to $561.12. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.06% from a day low at $559.06 to a day high of $565.00. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -2.73% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 932 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 49 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $27.74 billion.

The ETF lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $550.32 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -3.39% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $531.68 and $585.28 at the end of this 3-month period.

There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The SPY ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $590.48. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $559.68. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, March 13, 2025, and so far it has risen 1.76%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $560.58 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.94 between high and low, or 1.06%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.60%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.