Stronger technical forecast for SPY ETF price after Wednesday trading

The SPY ETF price gained 0.0281% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 2nd Oct 2024), rising from $568.70 to $568.86. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.82% from a day low at $565.27 to a day high of $569.90. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.33% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -32 million shares and in total, 34 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $19.37 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $574.49 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 3.58% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $549.32 and $595.08 at the end of this 3-month period.

The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $570.93. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $560.22. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, September 30, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.87%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $543.01 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.63 between high and low, or 0.82%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.97%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.