Stronger technical forecast for SPY ETF price after Wednesday trading

The SPY ETF price gained 0.0387% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 26th Feb 2025), rising from $594.33 to $594.56. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.31% from a day low at $591.86 to a day high of $599.58. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.76% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -18 million shares and in total, 39 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $23.04 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $586.39 and $617.11 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, February 25, 2025, and so far it has risen 0.0387%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $602.95 and $600.10. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $590.83 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $7.72 between high and low, or 1.31%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.28%.

SPY holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.