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Weaker technical forecast for Tesla as stock downgraded to Buy Candidate.

StockInvest.us, 10 months ago


The Tesla stock price fell by -3.10% on the last day (Monday, 30th Nov 2020) from $585.76 to $567.60. During the day the stock fluctuated 9.61% from a day low at $554.51 to a day high of $607.80. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 38.95% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 22 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 60 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $33.96 billion.

Wedbush does not see either upside or downside right now giving TSLA "Neutral" on their last update on November 23, 2020. The price target was set to $500.00 - $560.00.Over the last 30 days, this security got 1 buy, 0 sell, and 4 hold ratings.

The stock lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $586.95 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 14.61% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $457.40 and $672.70 at the end of this 3-month period.


The Tesla stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $541.92 and $449.22. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 months Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, November 27, 2020, and so far it has fallen -3.10%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $498.32 and $449.76.There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Tesla finds support just below today's level at $498.32. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $449.76 and $449.39.

This stock may move very much during a day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $53.29 between high and low, or 9.61%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 5.92%.

The Tesla stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Tesla stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy Candidate to a Buy Candidate candidate.

Check full Tesla forecast and analysis here.