Weaker technical forecast for Alibaba as stock downgraded to Strong Sell Candidate.StockInvest.us, 1 month ago
The Alibaba stock price fell by -4.04% on the last day (Friday, 24th Sep 2021) from $151.19 to $145.08. and has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the day the stock fluctuated 2.37% from a day low at $144.57 to a day high of $148.00. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -13.69% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 7 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 32 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.58 billion.
On September 15, 2021 "Stifel Nicolaus" gave "$260.00 - $210.00" rating for BABA. The price target was changed from $160.15 to 3.2%.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -32.28% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $87.36 and $108.00 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $152.31 and $168.92. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, September 07, 2021, and so far it has fallen -17.17%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $3.43 between high and low, or 2.37%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.49%.
Alibaba is oversold on RSI14 (23). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Alibaba holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.Check full Alibaba forecast and analysis here.