Weaker technical forecast for Invesco Nasdaq 100 as ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate

The Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF price fell by -1.33% on the last day (Tuesday, 15th Oct 2024) from $204.75 to $202.02. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.00% from a day low at $201.12 to a day high of $205.14. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 2% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 800 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $365.32 million.

The ETF lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $204.92 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 5.51% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $197.26 and $216.20 at the end of this 3-month period.

The Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $202.19. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $196.74. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, October 14, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.33%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 finds support from accumulated volume at $195.63 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.02 between high and low, or 2.00%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.14%.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.