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Weaker technical forecast for Microsoft as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.

StockInvest.us, 8 months ago


The Microsoft stock price fell by -1.04% on the last day (Friday, 13th Oct 2023) from $331.16 to $327.73. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.29% from a day low at $326.36 to a day high of $333.83. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.79% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 21 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $6.90 billion.

On Oct 10, 2023, it was reported that Morgan Stanley gave MSFT a "Overweight" grade with a "hold" action.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -5.41% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $291.52 and $322.21 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.


The Microsoft stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $328.02. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $325.79. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, September 26, 2023, and so far it has risen 4.99%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $327.50 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $7.47 (2.29%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.63%.

Microsoft holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Check full Microsoft forecast and analysis here.