Weaker technical forecast for Microsoft as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.StockInvest.us, 3 weeks ago
The Microsoft stock price gained 1.12% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 7th Nov 2023), rising from $356.53 to $360.53. It has now gained 8 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.35% from a day low at $357.63 to a day high of $362.46. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 9.08% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -89 thousand shares and in total, 23 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.36 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
On Nov 06, 2023, it was reported that Bernstein gave MSFT a "Buy" grade with a "hold" action.
The stock has broken the weak rising the short-term trend up and an even stronger rate of rising is indicated. For any reaction back there will now be support on the roof on the current trend broken at $349.17, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $377.93 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.
The Microsoft stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $348.52 and $329.43. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, September 26, 2023, and so far it has risen 15.50%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $340.67 and $330.22.There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Microsoft finds support just below today's level at $340.67. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $330.22 and $327.89.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $4.83 between high and low, or 1.35%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.60%.
Since the Microsoft has been rising for 8 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
Microsoft holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.Check full Microsoft forecast and analysis here.