Weaker technical forecast for Microsoft as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate

The Microsoft stock price fell by -0.465% on the last day (Monday, 4th Nov 2024) from $410.37 to $408.46. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.19% from a day low at $405.58 to a day high of $410.41. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -2.46% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -6 million shares and in total, 18 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $7.40 billion.

On Oct 31, 2024, it was reported that Barclays gave MSFT a "Overweight" grade with a "hold" action.

The stock lies in the lower part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $406.74 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.92% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $418.60 and $457.97 at the end of this 3-month period.

There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Microsoft stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $420.63 and $422.79. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, October 31, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.519%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $406.35 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $4.84 between high and low, or 1.19%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.75%.

Microsoft holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.