Weaker technical forecast for NVIDIA as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate

The NVIDIA stock price fell by -1.41% on the last day (Thursday, 23rd Apr 2026) from $202.50 to $199.64. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.35% from a day low at $197.22 to a day high of $203.83. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 8.55% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 109 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $21.75 billion.

On Apr 15, 2026, it was reported that BTIG gave NVDA a "Buy" grade with a "initialise" action.

The stockis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $202.55 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect NVIDIA stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $168.60 and $205.68 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

The NVIDIA stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $200.43. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $183.86. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, and so far it has fallen -1.41%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

NVIDIA finds support from accumulated volume at $195.56 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $6.61 between high and low, or 3.35%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.05%.

The NVIDIA stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

NVIDIA holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.