Weaker technical forecast for QQQ as ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate

The QQQ ETF price fell by -0.190% on the last day (Friday, 20th Sep 2024) from $483.36 to $482.44. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.13% from a day low at $478.30 to a day high of $483.69. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 7.52% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -19 million shares and in total, 32 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $15.65 billion.

The ETF lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $483.05 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -3.86% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $408.80 and $464.40 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

The QQQ ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $476.08 and $465.68. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, September 19, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.190%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $448.75 and $439.53.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, QQQ finds support just below today's level at $448.75. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $439.53 and $435.37.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.39 between high and low, or 1.13%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.25%.

QQQ holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.