Weaker technical forecast for SPY as ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.StockInvest.us, 1 month ago
The SPY ETF price fell by -0.40% on the last day (Tuesday, 9th Aug 2022) from $412.99 to $411.35. and has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.62% from a day low at $410.22 to a day high of $412.75. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days, but is still up by 5.23% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -9 million shares and in total, 45 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $18.42 billion.
The ETFis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $414.58 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $368.91 and $416.70 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $412.18. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $392.26. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, August 03, 2022, and so far it has fallen -0.75%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $392.75 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.53 between high and low, or 0.62%. For the last week, the ETF has had a daily average volatility of 1.03%.
SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.