Weaker technical forecast for SPY as ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.StockInvest.us, 4 weeks ago
The SPY ETF price gained 0.219% on the last trading day (Monday, 6th Nov 2023), rising from $434.69 to $435.64. It has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often that ETFS manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.569% from a day low at $433.68 to a day high of $436.15. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.61% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -32 million shares and in total, 67 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $29.03 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -5.93% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $383.91 and $409.82 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $424.01 and $427.76. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, October 27, 2023, and so far it has risen 6.08%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $429.54 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.47 (0.569%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.91%.
Since the SPY has been rising for 6 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.Check full SPY forecast and analysis here.