Weaker technical forecast for SPY as ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.266% on the last day (Thursday, 27th Mar 2025) from $568.59 to $567.08. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.05% from a day low at $564.94 to a day high of $570.90. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.84% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -4 million shares and in total, 41 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $23.35 billion.

The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -5.15% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $517.78 and $567.60 at the end of this 3-month period.

There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The SPY ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $568.82 and $583.76. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, March 13, 2025, and so far it has risen 2.84%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $563.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.95 between high and low, or 1.05%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.04%.

SPY holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.