XLE ETF downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Monday trading session

The XLE ETF price gained 0.238% on the last trading day (Monday, 27th Oct 2025), rising from $88.07 to $88.28. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.85% from a day low at $87.89 to a day high of $88.64. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.2% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -789 thousand shares and in total, 10 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $863.26 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the middle of a weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 2.35% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $87.59 and $94.86 at the end of this 3-month period.

Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The XLE ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $88.43. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $87.53. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, October 23, 2025, and so far it has fallen -0.776%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

XLE finds support from accumulated volume at $87.36 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.749 between high and low, or 0.85%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.37%.

The XLE ETF holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe XLE will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Sell candidate.