XLE ETF upgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Buy Candidate after Friday trading session

The XLE ETF price gained 0.630% on the last trading day (Friday, 21st Nov 2025), rising from $88.86 to $89.42. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.97% from a day low at $88.08 to a day high of $89.81. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -0.13% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -2 million shares and in total, 19 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.66 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect XLE ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $85.49 and $92.30 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

The XLE ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $90.29. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $88.39. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, November 14, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.83%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.

XLE finds support from accumulated volume at $88.97 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.74 between high and low, or 1.97%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.11%.

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for XLE ETF to perform well in the short-term period.We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Buy candidate.