China Railway Group Limited Stock Forecast
China Railway Group Limited stock upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on May 20, 2024)
The China Railway Group Limited stock price fell by -2.18% on the last day (Monday, 20th May 2024) from HK$4.59 to HK$4.49. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.47% from a day low at HK$4.47 to a day high of HK$4.67. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 16.32% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -15 million shares and in total, 26 million shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$117.49 million.
The stock lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at HK$4.60 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 11.06% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between HK$4.31 and HK$5.11 at the end of this 3-month period.
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0390.HK Signals & Forecast
The China Railway Group Limited stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at HK$4.35 and HK$4.06. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, May 17, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.18%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for China Railway Group Limited stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at HK$4.12 and HK$3.96. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, China Railway Group Limited finds support just below today's level at HK$4.12. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at HK$3.96 and HK$3.88.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved HK$0.200 between high and low, or 4.47%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.24%.
Our recommended stop-loss: HK$4.30 (-4.15%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 11 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (0390.HK) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 21st
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 21st we expect China Railway Group Limited to open at HK$4.54, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between HK$4.33 and HK$4.65, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-HK$0.156 (+/-3.48%) up or down from last closing price. If China Railway Group Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.96% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at HK$4.59 (2.23%) than the support at HK$4.12 (8.24%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is China Railway Group Limited stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for China Railway Group Limited stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.113 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for China Railway Group Limited of Tuesday, May 21, 2024
| Fair opening price May 21, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| HK$4.54 ( 1.19%) | HK$4.49 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 0390.HK
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 4.74 | 5.64 % | |
| R2 | 4.67 | 3.94 % | ||
| R1 | 4.62 | 2.89 % | ||
| Current price: | 4.49 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.47 | -0.514 % | |
| S2 | 4.42 | -1.56 % | ||
| S3 | 4.34 | -3.27 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 4.59 | 2.23 % | ||
| Current price | 4.49 | |||
| Support | S1 | 4.12 | -8.24% | |
| S2 | 3.96 | -11.80% | ||
| S3 | 3.88 | -13.59% |
0390 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jul 19, 2023 | Jul 19, 2023 | Jul 19, 2023 | HK$0.218 | 4.41% |
| 2 | Jul 20, 2022 | Jul 20, 2022 | Jul 20, 2022 | HK$0.230 | 4.65% |
| 3 | Jul 21, 2021 | Jul 21, 2021 | Jul 21, 2021 | HK$0.217 | 5.87% |
| 4 | Jul 29, 2020 | Jul 29, 2020 | Jul 29, 2020 | HK$0.185 | 4.70% |
| 5 | Jul 12, 2019 | Jul 12, 2019 | Jul 12, 2019 | HK$0.146 | 2.60% |
FAQ
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