Alcoa Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 15, 2026 Loss -24.06%

The Alcoa stock price gained 0.0822% on the last trading day (Monday, 13th Jul 2026), rising from $48.68 to $48.72. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.95% from a day low at $48.05 to a day high of $49.95. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -9.78% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -948 thousand shares and in total, 4 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $196.75 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the lower of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $45.63 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -17.37% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $37.71 and $63.35 at the end of this 3-month period.

AA Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, July 01, 2026, and so far it has risen 2.61%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Alcoa stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $48.88 and $62.75. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alcoa stock

Alcoa finds support from accumulated volume at $48.68 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.90 between high and low, or 3.95%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.80%.

Alcoa is oversold on RSI14 (24). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (AA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 14th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 14th we expect Alcoa Inc to open at $48.91, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $47.25 and $50.19, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.95 (+/-6.23%) up or down from last closing price. If Alcoa Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.23% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $48.68 (0.08%) than the resistance at $49.87 (2.36%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alcoa Inc stock A Buy?

Alcoa holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -3.693 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 14, 2026 - $48.91 ( 0.383%).

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