Alcoa Stock Forecast

Alcoa stock price fell more than -6.67% Tuesday closing at $35.14
(Updated on Apr 30, 2024)

AA Signals & Forecast

The Alcoa stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $36.30. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $34.27. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, April 29, 2024, and so far it has fallen -6.67%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alcoa stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $31.35 and $29.67. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Alcoa finds support just below today's level at $31.35. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $29.67 and $26.84.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $1.81 between high and low, or 5.16%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.71%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $33.34 (-5.12%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (AA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 1st

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 1st we expect Alcoa Inc to open at $35.72, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $33.54 and $36.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.60 (+/-4.56%) up or down from last closing price. If Alcoa Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 9.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $35.47 (0.94%) than the support at $31.35 (10.79%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Alcoa Inc stock A Buy?

Alcoa holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.309 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for Alcoa Inc of Wednesday, May 1, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.