Alcoa Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 15, 2026 Loss -14.15%

The Alcoa stock price fell by -5.60% on the last day (Tuesday, 23rd Jun 2026) from $58.35 to $55.08. It has now fallen 7 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.56% from a day low at $54.48 to a day high of $55.87. The price has fallen in 9 of the last 10 days and is down by -25% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -712 thousand shares and in total, 6 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $311.84 million.

Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.80% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $56.62 and $86.67 at the end of this 3-month period.

AA Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alcoa stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $61.47 and $67.91. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 02, 2026, and so far it has fallen -34.26%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alcoa stock

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.40 between high and low, or 2.56%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.54%.

Alcoa is oversold on RSI14 (13). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (AA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect Alcoa Inc to open at $55.14, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $53.24 and $56.92, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.68 (+/-6.91%) up or down from last closing price. If Alcoa Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.91% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $63.21, some $8.13 (14.76%) from the current price of $55.08, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Alcoa Inc stock A Buy?

The Alcoa stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Alcoa will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -3.578 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 24, 2026 - $55.14 ( 0.112%).

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