Arbor Realty Trust Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Arbor Realty Trust stock price down 1.46% on Tuesday
(Updated on Apr 30, 2024)
The Arbor Realty Trust stock price fell by -1.46% on the last day (Tuesday, 30th Apr 2024) from $13.02 to $12.83. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.17% from a day low at $12.72 to a day high of $13.00. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 6.3% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 284 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $33.72 million.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Arbor Realty Trust stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $11.73 and $13.59 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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ABR Signals & Forecast
The Arbor Realty Trust stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $12.88. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $12.79. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.80%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
A buy signal from a double bottom formation was found on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should go up by 2.27% to $13.12 within 46 trading days since signal was issued (Wednesday, May 01, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arbor Realty Trust stock
Arbor Realty Trust finds support from accumulated volume at $12.74 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.276 between high and low, or 2.17%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.54%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $12.36 (-3.68%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 5 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (ABR) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 1st we expect Arbor Realty Trust to open at $12.85, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $12.47 and $13.19, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.361 (+/-2.81%) up or down from last closing price. If Arbor Realty Trust takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.62% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $12.85 (0.16%) than the support at $12.74 (0.70%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Arbor Realty Trust will release earnings BMO on Friday, May 03, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.450. We will update the financials statements for Arbor Realty Trust, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 5.06% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Arbor Realty Trust stock A Buy?
Arbor Realty Trust holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Current score: 0.259 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Arbor Realty Trust of Wednesday, May 1, 2024
| Fair opening price May 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $12.85 ( 0.166%) | $12.83 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ABR
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 13.13 | 2.32 % | |
| R2 | 13.02 | 1.50 % | ||
| R1 | 12.96 | 0.99 % | ||
| Current price: | 12.83 | |||
| Support | S1 | 12.75 | -0.655 % | |
| S2 | 12.68 | -1.16 % | ||
| S3 | 12.58 | -1.98 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 13.99 | 9.04 % | |
| R2 | 13.02 | 1.48 % | ||
| R1 | 12.85 | 0.156 % | ||
| Current price | 12.83 | |||
| Support | S1 | 12.74 | -0.701% | |
| S2 | 12.67 | -1.25% | ||
| S3 | 12.25 | -4.52% |
ABR Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 16, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 15, 2024 | $0.430 | 3.32% |
| 2 | Nov 16, 2023 | Nov 16, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | $0.430 | 3.45% |
| 3 | Jul 28, 2023 | Aug 14, 2023 | Aug 31, 2023 | $0.430 | 2.69% |
| 4 | May 05, 2023 | May 18, 2023 | Aug 31, 2023 | $0.420 | 2.63% |
| 5 | Feb 17, 2023 | Mar 10, 2023 | Mar 17, 2023 | $0.400 | 3.57% |
FAQ
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