Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp Stock Forecast
Evaluation of Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jul 02, 2024)
The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp stock price gained 0.689% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 2nd Jul 2024), rising from $181.34 to $182.59. It has now gained 5 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.50% from a day low at $180.28 to a day high of $182.99. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.89% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -24 thousand shares and in total, 25 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.62 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $185.37 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -6.89% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $155.52 and $172.60 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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AGM Signals & Forecast
The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $179.29 and $176.33. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 14, 2024, and so far it has risen 7.75%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp stock
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp finds support from accumulated volume at $179.01 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $2.71 between high and low, or 1.50%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.10%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $176.82 (-3.16%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 32 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (AGM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 3rd we expect Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation to open at $181.95, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $178.93 and $186.25, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.66 (+/-2.00%) up or down from last closing price. If Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.01% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $184.47 (1.03%) than the support at $179.01 (1.96%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation stock A Buy?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation of Wednesday, July 3, 2024
| Fair opening price July 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $181.95 ( 0.349%) | $182.59 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AGM
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 184.66 | 1.14% |
| R2 | 183.63 | 0.569% |
| R1 | 182.99 | 0.218% |
| Price | 182.59 | |
| S1 | 180.92 | -0.92% |
| S2 | 180.28 | -1.27% |
| S3 | 179.24 | -1.83% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 189.60 | 3.84% |
| R2 | 185.24 | 1.45% |
| R1 | 184.47 | 1.03% |
| Price | 182.59 | |
| S1 | 179.01 | -1.96% |
| S2 | 174.67 | -4.34% |
| S3 | 173.25 | -5.12% |
AGM Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 15, 2024 | Jun 14, 2024 | Jun 28, 2024 | $1.40 | 0.774% |
| 2 | Feb 23, 2024 | Mar 14, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $1.40 | 0.711% |
| 3 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $1.10 | 0.575% |
| 4 | Aug 09, 2023 | Sep 14, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $1.10 | 0.713% |
| 5 | May 03, 2023 | Jun 15, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $1.10 | 0.765% |
FAQ
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