Agro Phos (India) Limited Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Agro Phos (India) Limited stock upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Agro Phos (India) Limited stock price fell by -2.79% on the last day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024) from ₹46.65 to ₹45.35. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.90% from a day low at ₹44.90 to a day high of ₹47.10. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days but is still up by 0.22% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 30 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 84 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹3.81 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -16.10% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹27.77 and ₹42.81 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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AGROPHOS.NS Signals & Forecast
A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 03, 2024, and so far it has fallen -8.66%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely. Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Agro Phos (India) Limited stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately ₹45.37. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately ₹42.80. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Agro Phos (India) Limited stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at ₹41.15 and ₹36.65. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Agro Phos (India) Limited finds support just below today's level at ₹41.15. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at ₹36.65 and ₹36.20.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved ₹2.20 between high and low, or 4.90%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 6.91%.
Our recommended stop-loss: ₹43.62 (-3.81%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 16 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (AGROPHOS.NS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Agro Phos (India) Limited to open at ₹45.78, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹42.41 and ₹48.29, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹2.94 (+/-6.48%) up or down from last closing price. If Agro Phos (India) Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 12.95% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at ₹48.40 (6.73%) than the support at ₹41.15 (9.26%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Agro Phos (India) Limited stock A Buy?
The stock is within a very wide and falling trend and holds several negative signals that may affect the stock in the short-term. However, we believe that today's you should hold a possible buying opportunity and expect the price to be higher at the end of the 3-month period. The careful investor would await further signals. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.798 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Agro Phos (India) Limited of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹45.78 ( 0.96%) | ₹45.35 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AGROPHOS.NS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 47.98 | 5.81 % | |
| R2 | 47.14 | 3.95 % | ||
| R1 | 46.62 | 2.81 % | ||
| Current price: | 45.35 | |||
| Support | S1 | 44.94 | -0.90 % | |
| S2 | 44.42 | -2.04 % | ||
| S3 | 43.58 | -3.90 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 55.80 | 23.04 % | |
| R2 | 49.65 | 9.48 % | ||
| R1 | 48.40 | 6.73 % | ||
| Current price | 45.35 | |||
| Support | S1 | 41.15 | -9.26% | |
| S2 | 36.65 | -19.18% | ||
| S3 | 36.20 | -20.18% |
AGROPHOS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 16, 2022 | Mar 16, 2022 | Mar 16, 2022 | ₹0.250 | 1.08% |
| 2 | May 29, 2018 | Sep 24, 2018 | Oct 29, 2018 | ₹0.0500 | 0.138% |
FAQ
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