Alior Bank S.A. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Evaluation of Alior Bank S.A. stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The Alior Bank S.A. stock price fell by -0.727% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from 103.10zł to 102.35zł. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.03% from a day low at 101.15zł to a day high of 103.20zł. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 12.23% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -170 thousand shares and in total, 202 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately 20.64zł million.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at 102.94zł will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -8.71% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between 80.51zł and 93.97zł at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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ALR.WA Signals & Forecast
The Alior Bank S.A. stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at 99.39zł and 95.23zł. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, June 27, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.727%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Monday, May 06, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -5.20% to 97.03zł within 18 trading days since signal was issued (Friday, May 31, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alior Bank S.A. stock
Alior Bank S.A. finds support from accumulated volume at 101.75zł and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved 2.05zł between high and low, or 2.03%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.55%.
Our recommended stop-loss: 98.60zł (-3.66%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 13 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (ALR.WA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect Alior Bank S.A. to open at 102.23zł, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between 99.64zł and 105.06zł, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-2.71zł (+/-2.65%) up or down from last closing price. If Alior Bank S.A. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.30% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at 102.85zł (0.49%) than the support at 101.75zł (0.59%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Alior Bank S.A. stock A Buy?
Alior Bank S.A. holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.920 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Alior Bank S.A. of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| 102.23zł ( 0.114%) | 102.35zł |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ALR.WA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 104.28 | 1.89% |
| R2 | 103.50 | 1.12% |
| R1 | 103.02 | 0.651% |
| Price | 102.35 | |
| S1 | 101.45 | -0.88% |
| S2 | 100.97 | -1.35% |
| S3 | 100.18 | -2.12% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 105.75 | 3.32% |
| R2 | 103.90 | 1.51% |
| R1 | 102.85 | 0.489% |
| Price | 102.35 | |
| S1 | 101.75 | -0.586% |
| S2 | 96.36 | -5.85% |
| S3 | 95.34 | -6.85% |
ALR Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 09, 2024 | May 09, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | 4.42zł | 4.65% |
FAQ
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