Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index ETF Forecast
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index ETF upgraded from Sell Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index ETF price fell by -0.187% on the last day (Friday, 17th May 2024) from $74.69 to $74.55. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.199% from a day low at $74.53 to a day high of $74.68. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.62% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -208 thousand shares and in total, 670 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $49.98 million.
The ETF lies the upper part of a narrow and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $74.76 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.07% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $71.04 and $73.21 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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BIV Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $74.38 and $73.94. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.348%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index ETF
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index finds support from accumulated volume at $73.59 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.148 between high and low, or 0.199%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.230%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $71.81 (-3.68%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 23 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (BIV) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund to open at $74.59, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $74.25 and $74.85, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.302 (+/-0.41%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.81% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $74.64 (0.12%) than the support at $73.59 (1.29%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.045 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $74.59 ( 0.0484%) | $74.55 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for BIV
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 74.73 | 0.247 % | |
| R2 | 74.68 | 0.171 % | ||
| R1 | 74.64 | 0.124 % | ||
| Current price: | 74.55 | |||
| Support | S1 | 74.53 | -0.0276 % | |
| S2 | 74.49 | -0.0745 % | ||
| S3 | 74.44 | -0.151 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 74.81 | 0.349 % | |
| R2 | 74.70 | 0.201 % | ||
| R1 | 74.64 | 0.121 % | ||
| Current price | 74.55 | |||
| Support | S1 | 73.59 | -1.29% | |
| S2 | 73.34 | -1.62% | ||
| S3 | 73.32 | -1.65% |
BIV Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 17, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 06, 2024 | $0.228 | 0.307% |
| 2 | Jan 17, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0.234 | 0.312% |
| 3 | Jan 17, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.211 | 0.280% |
| 4 | Jan 17, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.226 | 0.298% |
| 5 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | $0.225 | 0.295% |
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