Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Etf Shares ETF Forecast

Hold candidate since Nov 17, 2025

The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF price gained 0.0539% on the last trading day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025), rising from $74.16 to $74.20. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.121% from a day low at $74.19 to a day high of $74.28. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.07% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 433 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 7 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $512.30 million.

The ETF is at the lower part of a narrow and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $74.19 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $75.07 and $76.18 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

BND Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, November 05, 2025, and so far it has risen 0.162%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $74.33 and $74.55. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Tuesday, June 10, 2025 in the long-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $74.08 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0900 between high and low, or 0.121%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.190%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $69.45 (-6.40%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 8 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (BND) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares to open at $74.22, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $74.10 and $74.30, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.200 (+/-0.27%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.27% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $74.29 (0.12%) than the support at $74.08 (0.16%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares ETF A Buy?

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.740 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $74.22 ( 0.0314%).

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