CHF/JPY Currency Pair Forecast
CHF/JPY currency pair downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The CHF/JPY currency pair price fell by -0.106% on the last day (Friday, 17th May 2024) from JP¥171.37 to JP¥171.19. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 0.92% from a day low at JP¥170.44 to a day high of JP¥172.00. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.27% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 293 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 293 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥50.17 million.
The currency pair is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect CHF/JPY currency pair with a 90% probability to be traded between JP¥169.24 and JP¥175.10 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and currency pairs seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Currency pairs turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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CHFJPY Signals & Forecast
The CHF/JPY currency pair holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the currency pair giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the currency pair will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately JP¥171.66. On a fall, the currency pair will find some support from the long-term average at approximately JP¥169.93. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.728%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the currency pair should be followed more closely. The currency pair had a Golden Star Signal on Friday, April 12, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the currency pair in question.
Golden Star
The currency pair had a Golden Star Signal on Friday, April 12, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the currency pair in question.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Tuesday, May 14, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -2.14% to JP¥167.53 within 13 trading days since signal was issued (Monday, May 20, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for CHF/JPY currency pair
CHF/JPY finds support from accumulated volume at JP¥170.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the currency pair moved JP¥1.56 between high and low, or 0.92%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 0.235%.
Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥165.57 (-3.29%) (This currency pair has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CHFJPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect CHF/JPY to open at JP¥171.21, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between -JP¥45,261,050,466.11 and JP¥45,261,050,808.49, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥45,261,050,637.30 (+/-26 438 610 595.82%) up or down from last closing price. If CHF/JPY takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 52 877 221 191.64% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥171.25 (0.03%) than the support at JP¥170.96 (0.14%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is CHF/JPY currency pair A Buy?
CHF/JPY holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.174 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for CHF/JPY of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| JP¥171.21 ( 0.0097%) | JP¥171.19 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CHFJPY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 172.77 | 0.92 % | |
| R2 | 172.17 | 0.573 % | ||
| R1 | 171.81 | 0.358 % | ||
| Current price: | 171.19 | |||
| Support | S1 | 170.61 | -0.339 % | |
| S2 | 170.24 | -0.554 % | ||
| S3 | 169.65 | -0.90 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 171.49 | 0.171 % | |
| R2 | 171.46 | 0.155 % | ||
| R1 | 171.25 | 0.0327 % | ||
| Current price | 171.19 | |||
| Support | S1 | 170.96 | -0.136% | |
| S2 | 170.01 | -0.691% | ||
| S3 | 168.07 | -1.82% |
FAQ
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