Cotton Commodity Forecast
Cotton commodity upgraded from Sell Candidate to Buy Candidate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on Jun 25, 2024)
The Cotton commodity price gained 2.29% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 25th Jun 2024), rising from $73.39 to $75.07. During the last trading day the commodity fluctuated 2.98% from a day low at $72.90 to a day high of $75.07. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.64% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 10 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 23 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.70 million.
The commodity lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the commodity is expected to fall -18.65% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $56.88 and $62.21 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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CTUSX Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Sunday, June 23, 2024, and so far it has risen 4.77%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Cotton commodity holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the commodity giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the commodity will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $75.25. On a fall, the commodity will find some support from the short-term average at $73.13. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Cotton commodity
Cotton finds support from accumulated volume at $74.63 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the commodity tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the commodity moved $2.17 between high and low, or 2.98%. For the last week the commodity has had daily average volatility of 1.11%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $70.93 (-5.52%) (This commodity has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 24 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CTUSX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 26th we expect Cotton to open at $74.35, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $73.52 and $76.62, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.55 (+/-2.06%) up or down from last closing price. If Cotton takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.13% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $74.63 (0.59%) than the resistance at $78.52 (4.60%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Cotton commodity A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the commodity being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for commodity to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this commodity since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.022 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Cotton of Wednesday, June 26, 2024
| Fair opening price June 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $74.35 ( 0.96%) | $75.07 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CTUSX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 76.52 | 1.93% |
| R2 | 75.69 | 0.82% |
| R1 | 75.18 | 0.141% |
| Price | 75.07 | |
| S1 | 73.52 | -2.07% |
| S2 | 73.01 | -2.75% |
| S3 | 72.18 | -3.85% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 83.09 | 10.68% |
| R2 | 80.90 | 7.77% |
| R1 | 78.52 | 4.60% |
| Price | 75.07 | |
| S1 | 74.63 | -0.586% |
| S2 | 73.15 | -2.56% |
| S3 | 71.77 | -4.40% |
FAQ
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