Cenovus Energy Inc. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Cenovus Energy Inc. stock price ended at $28.17 on Thursday, after gaining 0.643%.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The Cenovus Energy Inc. stock price gained 0.643% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024), rising from $27.99 to $28.17. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.53% from a day low at $28.08 to a day high of $28.51. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days but is still down by -1.02% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -3 million shares and in total, 4 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $102.54 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $28.13 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 36.31% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $38.34 and $43.69 at the end of this 3-month period.
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CVE.TO Signals & Forecast
A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, and so far it has fallen -5.50%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Cenovus Energy Inc. stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $28.77. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $27.93. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Cenovus Energy Inc. stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $25.18 and $24.19. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Cenovus Energy Inc. finds support just below today's level at $25.18. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $24.19 and $23.74.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.430 between high and low, or 1.53%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.55%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $27.00 (-4.14%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 16 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CVE.TO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect Cenovus Energy Inc. to open at $28.25, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $27.54 and $28.80, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.632 (+/-2.24%) up or down from last closing price. If Cenovus Energy Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.49% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $28.34 (0.60%) than the support at $25.18 (10.61%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Cenovus Energy Inc. stock A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period.
Current score: 3.771 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Cenovus Energy Inc. of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $28.25 ( 0.296%) | $28.17 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CVE.TO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 28.68 | 1.82 % | |
| R2 | 28.52 | 1.24 % | ||
| R1 | 28.42 | 0.88 % | ||
| Current price: | 28.17 | |||
| Support | S1 | 28.09 | -0.287 % | |
| S2 | 27.99 | -0.648 % | ||
| S3 | 27.82 | -1.23 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 28.85 | 2.41 % | |
| R2 | 28.52 | 1.24 % | ||
| R1 | 28.34 | 0.603 % | ||
| Current price | 28.17 | |||
| Support | S1 | 25.18 | -10.61% | |
| S2 | 24.19 | -14.13% | ||
| S3 | 23.74 | -15.73% |
CVE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 15, 2024 | Mar 14, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.140 | 0.517% |
| 2 | Nov 02, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.140 | 0.634% |
| 3 | Jul 27, 2023 | Sep 14, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.140 | 0.495% |
| 4 | Jun 14, 2023 | Jun 14, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.140 | 0.622% |
| 5 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.105 | 0.445% |
FAQ
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