PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Friday for PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF after losing 0.429%
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF price fell by -0.429% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from $23.33 to $23.23. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.08% from a day low at $23.20 to a day high of $23.45. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.3% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 137 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 812 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $18.86 million.
The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $22.18 and $23.35 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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DBC Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $23.27 and $23.30. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 24, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.684%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $23.09 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.250 between high and low, or 1.08%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.781%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (DBC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF to open at $23.29, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $23.00 and $23.46, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.229 (+/-0.99%) up or down from last closing price. If PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.97% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $23.34 (0.47%) than the support at $23.09 (0.60%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF ETF A Buy?
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -4.234 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for PowerShares DB Commodity Index Fund ETF of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $23.29 ( 0.273%) | $23.23 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for DBC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 23.54 | 1.35% |
| R2 | 23.45 | 0.94% |
| R1 | 23.39 | 0.684% |
| Price | 23.23 | |
| S1 | 23.20 | -0.138% |
| S2 | 23.14 | -0.392% |
| S3 | 23.04 | -0.80% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 23.75 | 2.24% |
| R2 | 23.71 | 2.07% |
| R1 | 23.34 | 0.474% |
| Price | 23.23 | |
| S1 | 23.09 | -0.603% |
| S2 | 23.08 | -0.646% |
| S3 | 22.94 | -1.25% |
DBC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $1.09 | 4.88% |
| 2 | Dec 16, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | $0.145 | 0.591% |
| 3 | Jan 18, 2019 | Dec 23, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | $0.254 | 1.59% |
| 4 | Dec 21, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | $0.189 | 1.30% |
| 5 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | $0.340 | 1.62% |
FAQ
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