Ellington Residential Mortgage Reit Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Nov 17, 2025

The Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT stock price fell by -0.762% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $5.25 to $5.21. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.62% from a day low at $5.16 to a day high of $5.29. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.17% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 97 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 266 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.39 million.

The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $5.28 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -12.52% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $4.12 and $4.61 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

EARN Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, October 10, 2025, and so far it has risen 3.78%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $5.24 and $5.22. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT stock

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT finds support from accumulated volume at $5.15 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.135 between high and low, or 2.62%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.01%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (EARN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT to open at $5.22, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $5.16 and $5.26, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.107 (+/-2.08%) up or down from last closing price. If Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.08% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $5.15 (1.15%) than the resistance at $5.33 (2.30%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT stock A Buy?

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -4.127 Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $5.22 ( 0.159%).

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