FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES ETF Forecast
Evaluation of FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jun 25, 2024)
The FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES ETF price fell by -0.122% on the last day (Tuesday, 25th Jun 2024) from $49.18 to $49.12. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.01% from a day low at $48.66 to a day high of $49.15. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.42% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -4 thousand shares and in total, 5 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $249.87 thousand.
The ETF lies the upper part of a narrow and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $49.14 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -4.33% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $45.58 and $47.01 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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FMF Signals & Forecast
The FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $48.68 and $48.54. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, June 04, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.02%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this ETF may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, June 20, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, June 20, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES ETF
FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES finds support from accumulated volume at $48.91 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the ETF During the last day, the ETF moved $0.490 between high and low, or 1.01%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.89%
Our recommended stop-loss: $46.43 (-5.48%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 25 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (FMF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 26th we expect FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND to open at $48.98, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $48.71 and $49.53, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.405 (+/-0.83%) up or down from last closing price. If FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.65% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $48.91 (0.43%) than the resistance at $50.07 (1.93%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND ETF A Buy?
FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.500 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR MANAGED FUTURES STRATEGY FUND of Wednesday, June 26, 2024
| Fair opening price June 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $48.98 ( 0.292%) | $49.12 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FMF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 49.47 | 0.706% |
| R2 | 49.28 | 0.325% |
| R1 | 49.16 | 0.0894% |
| Price | 49.12 | |
| S1 | 48.79 | -0.673% |
| S2 | 48.67 | -0.91% |
| S3 | 48.49 | -1.29% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 50.53 | 2.87% |
| R2 | 50.41 | 2.62% |
| R1 | 50.07 | 1.93% |
| Price | 49.12 | |
| S1 | 48.91 | -0.427% |
| S2 | 48.74 | -0.782% |
| S3 | 48.63 | -1.01% |
FMF Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.347 | 0.686% |
| 2 | Dec 15, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | $0.414 | 0.89% |
| 3 | Dec 23, 2022 | Sep 22, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.379 | 0.774% |
| 4 | Dec 23, 2022 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.351 | 0.734% |
| 5 | Dec 23, 2022 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.281 | 0.598% |
FAQ
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