First Merchants Stock Forecast

Buy candidate since Jul 24, 2026

The First Merchants Corporation stock price gained 3.08% on the last trading day (Friday, 24th Jul 2026), rising from $41.89 to $43.18. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.40% from a day low at $41.55 to a day high of $43.38. The price has fallen in 5 of the last 10 days but is still up by 0.19% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -636 thousand shares and in total, 569 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $24.56 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 11.36% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $46.30 and $50.88 at the end of this 3-month period.

FRME Signals & Forecast

A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, July 16, 2026, and so far it has fallen -4.53%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The First Merchants Corporation stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $43.86. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $42.51. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Friday, June 05, 2026 in the short-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Merchants Corporation stock

First Merchants Corporation finds support from accumulated volume at $41.89 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $1.83 between high and low, or 4.40%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.01%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $41.11 (-4.79%) (This stock has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 6 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FRME) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 27th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 27th we expect First Merchants Corporation to open at $42.70, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $42.60 and $43.76, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.16 (+/-2.73%) up or down from last closing price. If First Merchants Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.73% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $43.30 (0.28%) than the support at $41.89 (2.99%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Merchants Corporation stock A Buy?

Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 2.930 Buy Candidate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 27, 2026 - $42.70 ( 1.10%).

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