Groupon Stock Forecast
Evaluation of Groupon stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The Groupon stock price gained 1.44% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024), rising from $11.12 to $11.28. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.00% from a day low at $11.00 to a day high of $11.44. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 16.17% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -286 thousand shares and in total, 659 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $7.44 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -40.68% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $4.84 and $7.89 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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GRPN Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 18.61%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Groupon stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $11.34 and $11.98. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Groupon stock
Groupon finds support from accumulated volume at $10.81 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.440 between high and low, or 4.00%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.79%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (GRPN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect Groupon to open at $11.24, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $10.46 and $12.10, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.82 (+/-7.29%) up or down from last closing price. If Groupon takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 14.57% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $11.48 (1.77%) than the support at $10.81 (4.17%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Groupon will release earnings AMC on Thursday, May 09, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is -$0.180. We will update the financials statements for Groupon, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 10.30% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Groupon stock A Buy?
Groupon holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.113 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Groupon of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $11.24 ( 0.355%) | $11.28 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for GRPN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.68 | 3.55 % | |
| R2 | 11.51 | 2.06 % | ||
| R1 | 11.41 | 1.14 % | ||
| Current price: | 11.28 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.07 | -1.84 % | |
| S2 | 10.97 | -2.77 % | ||
| S3 | 10.80 | -4.26 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.59 | 11.61 % | |
| R2 | 11.65 | 3.28 % | ||
| R1 | 11.48 | 1.77 % | ||
| Current price | 11.28 | |||
| Support | S1 | 10.81 | -4.17% | |
| S2 | 10.54 | -6.56% | ||
| S3 | 9.77 | -13.39% |
FAQ
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