Hdfc Mutual Fund Trust Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Hdfc Mutual Fund as trust downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The Hdfc Mutual Fund trust price gained 0.692% on the last trading day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024), rising from ₹134.40 to ₹135.33. During the last trading day the trust fluctuated 2.07% from a day low at ₹133.49 to a day high of ₹136.25. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.38% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 3 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 3 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹462.96 thousand.
The trust lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at ₹136.88 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the trust is expected to rise 6.07% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹135.73 and ₹145.19 at the end of this 3-month period.
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HDFCVALUE.BO Signals & Forecast
The Hdfc Mutual Fund trust holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at ₹132.80 and ₹129.35. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, June 05, 2024, and so far it has risen 7.54%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Hdfc Mutual Fund has increased volume and follows the last lift in the price. This is considered to be a technical positive sign as volume should follow the price-formation. Higher liquidity also reduces the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Hdfc Mutual Fund trust
Hdfc Mutual Fund finds support from accumulated volume at ₹129.03 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the trust tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the trust moved ₹2.76 between high and low, or 2.07%. For the last week the trust has had daily average volatility of 1.32%.
The Hdfc Mutual Fund trust is overbought on RSI14 and the RSI has been falling for the last couple of days. This together with the fact that the trust is in the upper part of the trend poses a possible good selling opportunity for the short-term trader. However, one should note that some trusts may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the trust manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: ₹128.24 (-5.24%) (This trust has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 73 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 18 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (HDFCVALUE.BO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect Hdfc Mutual Fund to open at ₹135.02, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹133.22 and ₹137.44, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹2.11 (+/-1.56%) up or down from last closing price. If Hdfc Mutual Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ ₹129.03, some ₹6.30 (4.66%) from the current price of ₹135.33, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is Hdfc Mutual Fund trust A Buy?
Hdfc Mutual Fund holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this trust since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for Hdfc Mutual Fund of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹135.02 ( 0.227%) | ₹135.33 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for HDFCVALUE.BO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 137.78 | 1.81% |
| R2 | 136.73 | 1.03% |
| R1 | 136.08 | 0.552% |
| Price | 135.33 | |
| S1 | 133.97 | -1.01% |
| S2 | 133.32 | -1.49% |
| S3 | 132.26 | -2.27% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0 | - |
| R2 | 0 | - |
| R1 | 0 | - |
| Price | 135.33 | |
| S1 | 129.03 | -4.66% |
| S2 | 125.95 | -6.93% |
| S3 | 123.48 | -8.76% |
FAQ
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