Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.a Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Nov 06, 2025 Gain 1.81%

The Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. stock price fell by -2.13% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $6.80 to $6.65. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.80% from a day low at $6.65 to a day high of $6.77. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.1% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 53 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 55 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $362.47 thousand.

The stock lies in the middle of a weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.86% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $6.56 and $7.16 at the end of this 3-month period.

IITSF Signals & Forecast

The Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $6.77. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $6.52. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, November 13, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.39%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. stock

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. finds support from accumulated volume at $6.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.120 between high and low, or 1.80%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.18%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $6.35 (-4.52%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 2 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (IITSF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. to open at $6.69, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $6.58 and $6.72, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.131 (+/-1.99%) up or down from last closing price. If Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.99% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $6.55 (1.50%) than the resistance at $6.76 (1.65%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Dividend Warning For IITSF

Dividend warning for IITSF: Ex-dividend date is approaching in 5 days on Monday 24th November, 2025. The dividend to be paid is $0.210, which is a large dividend (3.16%). The stock is expected to open approximately 3.16% lower on the ex-dividend date.

Is Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. stock A Buy?

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: -0.759 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $6.69 ( 0.602%).

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