KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF price gained 0.511% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th May 2024), rising from $29.37 to $29.52. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.02% from a day low at $29.38 to a day high of $29.68. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.51% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -132 thousand shares and in total, 62 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.84 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $29.40 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 3.80% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $30.52 and $33.00 at the end of this 3-month period.
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KMLM Signals & Forecast
The KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $29.58 and $30.40. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.545%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy finds support from accumulated volume at $29.37 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.300 (1.02%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.06%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $27.79 (-5.86%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 24 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (KMLM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF to open at $29.53, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $29.16 and $29.88, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.359 (+/-1.21%) up or down from last closing price. If KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.43% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $29.55 (0.10%) than the support at $29.37 (0.51%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF ETF A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 2.306 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $29.53 ( 0.0226%) | $29.52 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for KMLM
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 29.83 | 1.04 % | |
| R2 | 29.71 | 0.651 % | ||
| R1 | 29.64 | 0.411 % | ||
| Current price: | 29.52 | |||
| Support | S1 | 29.41 | -0.366 % | |
| S2 | 29.34 | -0.605 % | ||
| S3 | 29.23 | -0.99 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 30.19 | 2.27 % | |
| R2 | 29.80 | 0.95 % | ||
| R1 | 29.55 | 0.102 % | ||
| Current price | 29.52 | |||
| Support | S1 | 29.37 | -0.508% | |
| S2 | 29.12 | -1.36% | ||
| S3 | 29.11 | -1.39% |
KMLM Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 27, 2022 | Dec 28, 2022 | Dec 30, 2022 | $2.48 | 8.12% |
| 2 | Dec 28, 2021 | Dec 29, 2021 | Dec 31, 2021 | $1.84 | 6.94% |
FAQ
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