Mahanagar Gas Limited Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Mahanagar Gas Limited stock downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The Mahanagar Gas Limited stock price fell by -1.92% on the last day (Friday, 3rd May 2024) from ₹1,457.15 to ₹1,429.10. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.20% from a day low at ₹1,414.60 to a day high of ₹1,474.00. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.71% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 182 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 422 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹603.06 million.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at ₹1,459.96 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -5.02% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹1,117.56 and ₹1,386.71 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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MGL.NS Signals & Forecast
The Mahanagar Gas Limited stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately ₹1,446.52. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately ₹1,390.89. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, April 08, 2024, and so far it has fallen -3.64%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Mahanagar Gas Limited stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at ₹1,329.60 and ₹1,315.95. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Mahanagar Gas Limited finds support just below today's level at ₹1,329.60. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at ₹1,315.95 and ₹1,271.55.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved ₹59.40 (4.20%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.34%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (MGL.NS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Mahanagar Gas Limited to open at ₹1,439.23, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹1,388.47 and ₹1,469.73, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹40.63 (+/-2.84%) up or down from last closing price. If Mahanagar Gas Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.69% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at ₹1,440.20 (0.78%) than the support at ₹1,329.60 (6.96%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Mahanagar Gas Limited will release earnings BMO on Thursday, May 09, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $12.30. We will update the financials statements for Mahanagar Gas Limited, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 3.30% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Mahanagar Gas Limited stock A Buy?
Mahanagar Gas Limited holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.658 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Mahanagar Gas Limited of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹1,439.23 ( 0.709%) | ₹1,429.10 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for MGL.NS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 1,498.63 | 4.87 % | |
| R2 | 1,475.94 | 3.28 % | ||
| R1 | 1,461.92 | 2.30 % | ||
| Current price: | 1,429.10 | |||
| Support | S1 | 1,416.54 | -0.88 % | |
| S2 | 1,402.52 | -1.86 % | ||
| S3 | 1,379.83 | -3.45 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 1,486.80 | 4.04 % | |
| R2 | 1,453.90 | 1.74 % | ||
| R1 | 1,440.20 | 0.777 % | ||
| Current price | 1,429.10 | |||
| Support | S1 | 1,329.60 | -6.96% | |
| S2 | 1,315.95 | -7.92% | ||
| S3 | 1,271.55 | -11.02% |
MGL Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 05, 2024 | Feb 05, 2024 | Feb 22, 2024 | ₹12.00 | 0.783% |
| 2 | Feb 14, 2023 | Feb 14, 2023 | Feb 14, 2023 | ₹10.00 | 1.12% |
| 3 | Aug 11, 2022 | Aug 11, 2022 | Aug 11, 2022 | ₹15.50 | 1.80% |
| 4 | Feb 17, 2022 | Feb 17, 2022 | Feb 17, 2022 | ₹9.50 | 1.22% |
| 5 | Sep 17, 2021 | Sep 17, 2021 | Sep 17, 2021 | ₹14.00 | 1.23% |
FAQ
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