Metcash Limited Stock Forecast
Evaluation of Metcash Limited stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jun 26, 2024)
The Metcash Limited stock price fell by -2.69% on the last day (Wednesday, 26th Jun 2024) from $3.72 to $3.62. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.05% from a day low at $3.61 to a day high of $3.72. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -4.23% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 1 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 6 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $20.65 million.
The stock has broken the falling short-term trend down. Firstly a stronger fallrate is indicated, but false breaks and "sell-off" may occur. However, a further fall is realistic and any reactions back to the breaking point ($3.63) are considered to be a "second chance" to get out. According to the fan-theory $3.43 will represent the new bottom line of the next trend, but it is far too early to say this for certain.
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MTS.AX Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Metcash Limited stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $3.75 and $3.79. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, June 20, 2024, and so far it has fallen -5.73%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Metcash Limited stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.110 between high and low, or 3.05%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.80%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (MTS.AX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 27th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 27th we expect Metcash Limited to open at $3.65, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $3.55 and $3.69, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0748 (+/-2.07%) up or down from last closing price. If Metcash Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.13% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $3.69, some $0.0700 (1.93%) from the current price of $3.62, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is Metcash Limited stock A Buy?
Metcash Limited holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.890 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Metcash Limited of Thursday, June 27, 2024
| Fair opening price June 27, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $3.65 ( 0.83%) | $3.62 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for MTS.AX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 3.76 | 3.87% |
| R2 | 3.72 | 2.71% |
| R1 | 3.69 | 1.99% |
| Price | 3.62 | |
| S1 | 3.61 | -0.332% |
| S2 | 3.58 | -1.05% |
| S3 | 3.54 | -2.21% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 3.78 | 4.42% |
| R2 | 3.72 | 2.76% |
| R1 | 3.69 | 1.93% |
| Price | 3.62 | |
| S1 | 0 | - |
| S2 | 0 | - |
| S3 | 0 | - |
MTS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jul 16, 2024 | Jul 16, 2024 | Aug 27, 2024 | $0.0850 | 2.35% |
| 2 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Jan 30, 2024 | $0.110 | 3.06% |
| 3 | Jul 18, 2023 | Jul 18, 2023 | Jul 18, 2023 | $0.110 | 3.05% |
| 4 | Dec 20, 2022 | Dec 20, 2022 | Dec 20, 2022 | $0.115 | 2.83% |
| 5 | Jul 12, 2022 | Jul 12, 2022 | Jul 12, 2022 | $0.110 | 2.60% |
FAQ
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