Novartis AG Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Novartis AG stock price ended at 93.99 Fr on Friday, after losing 0.360%.
(Updated on Jun 21, 2024)
The Novartis AG stock price fell by -0.360% on the last day (Friday, 21st Jun 2024) from 94.33 Fr to 93.99 Fr. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.88% from a day low at 93.98 Fr to a day high of 94.81 Fr. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.01% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 8 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 11 million shares were bought and sold for approximately 1.05 Fr billion.
The stock lies in the middle of a narrow and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 12.10% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between 103.07 Fr and 107.48 Fr at the end of this 3-month period.
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NOVN.SW Signals & Forecast
The Novartis AG stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately 94.03 Fr. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately 92.69 Fr. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, June 14, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.07%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Wednesday, September 13, 2023 in the long-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Golden Star 12 Months
The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Wednesday, September 13, 2023 in the long-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novartis AG stock
Novartis AG finds support from accumulated volume at 93.17 Fr and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved 0.83 Fr between high and low, or 0.88%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.16%.
Our recommended stop-loss: 91.26 Fr (-2.90%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 17 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (NOVN.SW) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 24th we expect Novartis AG to open at 94.26 Fr, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between 92.79 Fr and 95.19 Fr, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-1.20 Fr (+/-1.28%) up or down from last closing price. If Novartis AG takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.56% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at 94.33 Fr (0.36%) than the support at 93.17 Fr (0.87%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Novartis AG stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Novartis AG stock to perform well in the short-term.
Current score: 1.885 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Novartis AG of Monday, June 24, 2024
| Fair opening price June 24, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| 94.26 Fr ( 0.287%) | 93.99 Fr |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NOVN.SW
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 95.09 | 1.17% |
| R2 | 94.77 | 0.83% |
| R1 | 94.58 | 0.625% |
| Price | 93.99 | |
| S1 | 93.94 | -0.0501% |
| S2 | 93.75 | -0.258% |
| S3 | 93.43 | -0.596% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 95.01 | 1.09% |
| R2 | 94.50 | 0.543% |
| R1 | 94.33 | 0.362% |
| Price | 93.99 | |
| S1 | 93.17 | -0.87% |
| S2 | 92.73 | -1.34% |
| S3 | 88.94 | -5.37% |
NOVN Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 11, 2024 | 3.30 Fr | 3.72% |
| 2 | Mar 09, 2023 | Mar 09, 2023 | Mar 13, 2023 | 3.20 Fr | 4.28% |
| 3 | Mar 08, 2022 | Mar 08, 2022 | Mar 08, 2022 | 3.10 Fr | 4.17% |
| 4 | Mar 04, 2021 | Mar 04, 2021 | Mar 04, 2021 | 3.00 Fr | 3.84% |
| 5 | Jan 29, 2020 | Mar 03, 2020 | Mar 05, 2020 | 2.95 Fr | 3.59% |
FAQ
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